双语•智库 | 大多数美国人害怕“人工智能”，你呢？

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本期为第五期，智库文章选自国际知名智库美国国际战略研究中心（CSIS, Center for Strategic and International Studies）文章内容有删节。

Fear, Democracy, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence

恐惧、民主以及人工智能的未来

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”—Franklin Delano Roosevelt

“我们唯一惧怕的就是惧怕本身。”——富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福

▲富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福（Franklin D. Roosevelt）

FDR’s famous words have perhaps never been so true as they are for those of us who are enthusiastic about the potential of artificial intelligence (AI). Last week, the Pew Research Center released the results of a new poll on “Automation in Everyday Life,” which, unsurprisingly, showed that the majority of Americans are more afraid of the transformative potential of AI than excited about it.

对于我们当中那些对人工智能的潜力感兴趣的人来说，富兰克林的这句名言也许再真实不过了。上周，皮尤研究中心发布了一项关于“日常生活自动化”的调查数据。结果不出所料地显示，大多数美国人对于人工智能的潜在变革感到害怕，而不是充满期待。

On one hand, this result is not a surprise. Major technological disruptions have always been met with fear and suspicion, particularly those that have transformed work, and fears of an AI “jobspocalypse” have been documented for years. The steam engine, automobile, and sewing machine were presented as a menace to the working public at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, but in reality they created new opportunities and an unprecedented boom in growth and productivity that created the middle class.

一方面，这个结果并不出人意料。大型的技术颠覆往往伴随着恐惧和怀疑，特别是对于那些工作需要转型的人来说，尤为如此。而人们对于人工智能导致“工作危机”的担忧也存在许多年了。在工业革命初期，蒸汽机、汽车和缝纫机曾被认为是对劳苦大众的威胁，但实际上，它们创造了新的机会，使经济和生产力得到了前所未有的发展，并由此产生了中产阶级。

The wording of this survey probably did not help either. The survey asked respondents if they are very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, somewhat worried, or very worried about “a future where robots and computers can do many human jobs,” framing the AI revolution as a battle for work between humans and machines. No surprise, then, that human respondents, faced with a rising tide of robots that don’t need raises, sick days, sleep, or pensions, fear the coming battle. Labor feared the Industrial Revolution too, but it still came, and workers still reaped its benefits. The same is true of computers.

这项调查的措辞可能也没发挥积极作用。调查问卷中询问调查对象是否对“未来机器人和计算机能够从事人类工作”“充满期待/有点期待/有点担忧/非常担忧”，把人工智能革命设定为人类和机器之间的工作争夺战。结果不出人意料，调查对象在无需加薪、病假、睡觉或退休金的机器人数量增加的趋势下，对即将到来的工作争夺战感到害怕。劳动者也曾害怕过工业革命，但它还是来了，而工人们也从中有所获益。计算机到来时的真实情况也是如此。

▲10月23日，《纽约客》杂志封面描绘了机器人向人类施舍的画面，引发热议

What should concern us is the policy section of the survey. A whopping 85 percent of Americans surveyed supported a policy that “machines are limited to doing dangerous or unhealthy jobs.” Almost half strongly favored this policy! Just 14 percent of Americans oppose government limiting which businesses and sectors can take advantage of the automation revolution.

我们应该注意到这个调查的政策部分。高达85%的美国调查对象支持“机器应仅限于从事危险或不利于健康的工作”的政策。几乎有一半人都强烈支持这项政策。只有14%的美国人反对政府对于哪些行业和部门能够进行自动化革命实行限制。

That figure should be deeply disturbing. If the predominant view of AI among voters is fear, it makes it difficult for our elected leaders to support the technology and help us reap its benefits. How many members of Congress can resist supporting a policy that has the backing of 85 percent of Americans? How many presidential candidates are likely to stand up for the positive potential of AI with the support of just 14 percent of the electorate?

这个数字令人深感不安。如果投票者对人工智能的先导观念是害怕，那么我们的当选领导人就很难支持技术来帮助我们获益。有多少国会议员会反对有85%的美国人支持的政策？有多少总统候选人会为仅占14%的选民站出来发声，支持人工智能积极发展。

As much as we might enjoy the spectacle of Congress debating what jobs are “dangerous or unhealthy” enough to be automated, any laws or policies that constrain the development and deployment of these technologies in the United States will have far-reaching consequences. The United States cannot stop the automation revolution alone. Around the world, countries recognize that AI and robotics is the future, opposition to AI in the United States represents a huge opportunity. If we put the brakes on the development of AI in our country, they will forge ahead.

我们可能会欣赏到这样的画面：国会议员辩论什么工作才能算得上足够“危险或对健康不利”，必须得用自动化代替，一切限制这些技术发展和部署的法律或政策都将产生深远的影响。美国是无法独自阻挡自动化革命的。世界各国都认识到人工智能和机器人学是未来的趋势所在，在美国，对人工智能的反对也代表着巨大的机遇：如果我们限制人工智能在美国的发展，他们就会超过我们。

And it is not as simple as saying “Fine, let their workers lose their livelihoods!” In our ever-more-global economy, new business models developed overseas will displace Americans from jobs as quickly as those developed next door. If we allow ourselves to fall behind in the development and deployment of AI, the biggest impact on our job market will be that fewer AI-enabled jobs will become available to Americans, and fewer U.S. businesses will benefit from the efficiencies and new capabilities provided by AI.

这也不像随便说说“算了，让他们的工人失业去吧！”那么简单。随着经济日益全球化，外国发展的新型商业模式将迅速夺走美国人的饭碗，就像它们进军邻国一样快。如果我们甘心落后于人工智能的发展和部署，我们的就业市场面临的最大影响就是，从事人工智能相关工作的美国人将变得更少，美国的各个行业也将从人工智能带来的效率和新技能中获益更少。

So what can we do? The first thing is to educate the public and push back on unrealistic fears about AI. Humans fear the unknown, but when it comes to AI we often overestimate what we do not know. What does the economic impact of AI look like? As much as we see it as the wave of the future, commercial AI has been around for more than a decade and has transformed our lives in largely positive ways.

那么，我们能做些什么呢？首先，要对公众进行教育，减少对人工智能不切实际的恐惧。人类惧怕未知事物，但对于人工智能未知的一面，我们往往夸大其词。人工智能的经济效应如何？我们一直认为人工智能是未来的潮流，商用人工智能已经存在了十余载，给我们的生活带来了十分积极的改变。

A great example is Google Search, one of the most prolific, ubiquitous, and disruptive technologies of the modern era. Search made the Internet accessible to the everyman, and Google’s ability to identify and serve up the search results that we want using machine learning, an early form of AI, led it to dominate the industry. Google’s ability to analyze our online behavior and target advertising using AI allowed it to provide this transformative service for free. And through the Internet, accessed via Google, the digital economy was born. Everything from the way we shop to the way we interact has been transformed. Most people do not fear the Internet and appreciate its benefits, but they do not recognize the role AI has played in enabling its development.

作为当代最多产、最普遍、最具颠覆性的技术之一，谷歌搜索是个不错的例子。搜索功能让人人都有机会使用互联网，通过早期的人工智能形式——机器学习，谷歌可以识别并提供我们想要的搜索结果，使之成为行业的佼佼者。谷歌还能分析我们的上网行为，通过人工智能定向投放广告，如此一来，这种变革性的服务就可以免费实现。以互联网为基础、以谷歌作为访问渠道的数字经济应运而生。从购物到互动方式，人们生活的方方面面都发生了改变。大多数人并不畏惧互联网，而是更看重它带来的实惠，不过人们并没有意识到人工智能在推动互联网发展方面所起的作用。

▲机器人在布朗大学的实验室中分开了一只黄色的雏菊（图片来源：纽约客）

The second is to accelerate the deployment of AI across more applications and sectors. This strategy has risks—it could provoke a populist backlash against AI, particularly if there is a major accident—but perhaps the best defense against fear of the unknown is to give the average American the chance to become more familiar and comfortable with the technology. It is also harder to roll back the adoption of a technology than to prevent it from starting, and pushing early adoption of AI may make it harder for regulators to disrupt its spread.

其次，要加快人工智能融入更多应用和行业。这一战略存在风险，可能引起民粹主义者强烈抵制人工智能，特别是在有重大事故发生的情况下。不过防范对未知事物产生恐惧的最佳途径就是让美国普通民众有机会更深入地了解人工智能，让他们对这一技术产生好感。限制一项技术的应用比阻止它兴起还要困难，人工智能越早推进，监管部门对其普及的阻挠就会更难上加难。

Third, we need to recognize and proactively manage the legitimate risks associated with the adoption of AI. Though much of the concern around AI is hype or fear of the unknown, there are real risks around privacy, job displacement, inequality, and bias that need to be addressed. There will be accidents, disruptions, and unintended consequences, and if we do not have a strategy to deal with these challenges in advance, we are likely to fall into the trap of reactionary policymaking that poses the greatest risk to the U.S. AI revolution.

最后，我们需要意识到人工智能在应用过程中带来的合理风险，并进行积极管控。虽然对人工智能的关注大多是对其未知一面的大肆宣传和惧怕，但依然需要应对切实存在的风险，涉及隐私、裁员、不平等和偏见等问题，可能造成事故、混乱以及意外后果。如果没有提前应对这些挑战的策略，我们就可能陷入反对派决策者的圈套，严重威胁到美国的人工智能革命。

The biggest risk is that the benefits of AI will not be distributed evenly. Like free trade before it, AI promises real economic opportunity, but unlike a rising tide, it may not lift everyone up equally. Free trade has come under fire from both ends of the political spectrum because we failed to manage its short-term disruptive impacts. Policymakers failed to provide job training and retraining, a strong social safety net for people in transition, and freedom of movement and investment that helps to distribute the benefits of economic transformation.

最大的风险在于人工智能的效益分配不均。和此前的自由贸易一样，人工智能有望创造实在的经济机会，但与大锅饭不同，并非人人都能平等地从中分到一杯羹。自由贸易从始至终备受政界诟病，因为其短期内带来的破坏性影响没有得到管控，决策者未能提供职业培训和再培训，没有为转型期的人们构建强有力的社会保障体系，人员流动和投资自由更无从谈起，而这种自由恰恰有助于经济转型的效益分配。

We cannot make the same mistake with AI. When congressmen get angry calls from constituents whose jobs have been displaced by AI, they should be able to point to the programs and institutions they have put in place to help them build new careers and businesses. If opposing the growth of the AI economy is the most politically attractive option, the future of the economy and U.S. leadership will be at risk.

我们不能在人工智能上重蹈覆辙。当选民因人工智能而失业，对国会议员怨声载道之时，国会议员应当从这些选民正在实施的项目和所在机构中寻找解决办法，帮助他们重建事业。如果反对发展人工智能经济成为政坛内最受欢迎的选择，那么美国未来的经济和领导力将会面临风险。

Fear of AI is the biggest risk to our future. Shedding light on the benefits of AI, showing voters its potential, and managing the risks of this transformative technology is the best way to ensure that the United States maintains its global leadership and that humanity can reap the full benefits of the technology of the future.

对人工智能的恐惧是给未来埋下的最大隐患。阐明人工智能的益处、向选民展示其潜力、管控该变革性技术的风险是保证美国维持全球领导力、让人类从这种未来技术中充分获益的最佳途径。

作者

▲William A. Carter

华盛顿国际战略研究中心技术政策项目副主任、研究员

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